What is line betting?
Line betting is when a bookmaker sets a point handicap on both teams to provide a level playing field. The underdog receives a positive margin handicap, and the favorite team receives a negative margin handicap.
For example, in an AFL match, if you’re betting on the Sydney Swans with a line of -19.5 vs. the Gold Coast Suns +19.5, Sydney must win by 20 points or more for your bet to win. If you bet on the Suns +19.5, they can lose by up to 19 points, and your bet will still win. Typically, AFL lines pay $1.91 in Australia.
In our opinion, some of the best Australian betting sites for placing a line bet are PlayUp and Picklebet. They both offer generous line odds in addition to 900+ in game markets across sports like AFL and NRL.
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Keep reading to learn more about line betting, how it works, and some expert tips for picking wisely.
Understanding How Line Betting Works
Line betting, also known as point spread betting, is a popular form of sports betting where a bookmaker handicaps a particular team to create a level playing field for both teams.
The handicap is given in points, and the team with a negative handicap is expected to win by more points than the handicap suggests.
On the other hand, the team with a positive handicap is expected to lose by less than the handicap suggests.
The Basics of Line Betting
Let’s say the bookmaker sets a line of -14.5 for the Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans game.
If you bet on Melbourne to cover the line, then they will need to win by at least 15 points or more for your bet to be successful. However, if you bet on Sydney to cover the line, then they can win or lose by up to 14 points, and your bet will still be successful.
It is important to note that line betting differs from traditional head-to-head betting, in which you simply bet on which team will win the game. However, in line betting, you are betting on the margin of victory, which makes it a bit more challenging.
It requires punters to be proficient in analysing team performance, identifying external factors that can impact the game, and managing their bankroll effectively.
The Role of Bookmakers in Line Betting
Bookmakers play a vital role in sports betting. They set the line and adjust it based on betting activity.
The line is a handicap designed to create an equal playing field for both teams, and it is the bookmaker’s job to ensure that the line is fair and balanced.
Setting the Line
Setting the line is crucial. They must carefully analyse various factors to arrive at a reasonable handicap to create an equal playing field for both teams. These factors can include team form, injuries, weather conditions, and other relevant statistics.
Bookies use various tools and techniques, such as computer models, statistical analysis, and expert knowledge, to help them set the line and arrive at a fair and balanced number.
Setting the line is a complex process that requires a deep understanding of the sport and the teams involved.
Adjusting the Line Based on Betting Activity
Once the line has been set, bookies monitor the amount of money bet on each team. If one team receives a disproportionate amount of bets, the bookmaker may adjust the line to manage the amount of money bet on both teams.
Bookmakers want to take in as much money as possible on both sides of the line to mitigate their losses. By adjusting the line, they can encourage more bets on the other team, which helps them avoid large payouts to punters who are successful in their bets.
It is important to note that bookmakers do not set the line based on who they think will win the game. Instead, they put the line based on the amount of money they expect to take in on each side of the line. This means that the line may not always reflect the true odds of the game.
Strategies for Successful Line Betting
Successful line betting requires a disciplined approach and a nuanced understanding of the game’s dynamics. Here are some strategies to consider to maximise your chances of winning a line bet:
Analysing Team Performance
Any line bettor starts by thoroughly analysing the team’s recent performance. To make an informed decision, you need to examine their current form, home or away record, and the quality of their opponents.
Considering External Factors
It’s not just team performance that dictates the outcome of a game. External factors, such as weather conditions or injuries, can significantly impact the outcome of a football game, so it’s important to consider these factors when placing your line bets.
Managing Your Bankroll
Effective bankroll management is a crucial component of any successful betting strategy, and you should only bet money you can afford to lose.
Above all else – it’s important to remember not to chase your losses – whether it be on a line bet or any other type of gambling.
Common Line Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Line betting can be challenging, and mistakes are inevitable. However, there are some common mistakes to avoid:
Overestimating Home Ground Advantage
Home ground advantage is real, and throughout the years, there have been many AFL teams who have turned their home ground into a “fortress” – but it’s not a guarantee that a team will win by a significant margin.
While it’s true that teams often perform better on their home turf, you should be careful not to overestimate the impact of home-ground advantage – as additional factors like the weather, injuries, and team form can all play a significant role in determining the outcome of a footy match.
Ignoring Injuries and Suspensions
Team injuries and suspensions can severely impact a team’s ability to win a match, so make sure you stay informed about these developments and factor them into your line bets.
For example, if Jeremy Cameron is injured or suspended for the Cats, their chances of winning will likely be reduced (let’s face it, he’s a gun!).
Chasing Losses
One of the most significant mistakes you can make is to chase losses. When you’re on a losing streak, it can be tempting to try to recoup your losses by making bigger bets or betting on long-shot odds.
However, this approach is rarely effective and can often lead to even greater losses. Remember to gamble responsibly!
Frequently Asked Questions About Line Betting
Is Line Betting Legal in Australia?
Yes, line betting is legal in Australia. However, it is heavily regulated, and all bookmakers must be licensed by the relevant state or territory authorities.
The Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) oversees the regulation of online gambling in Australia, and all licensed bookmakers must comply with the Interactive Gambling Act 2001.
Can You Make a Living from Line Betting?
While it’s possible to make money from line betting, it’s very challenging to make a living from it.
Successful line betting requires a nuanced understanding of the game, sharp analysis skills, and a disciplined approach to betting strategy.
Line betting can be a profitable way to bet on sports, but it’s important to remember that it’s a form of gambling and should be treated as such.
It’s essential to set a budget and stick to it, and not to chase losses. It’s also important to bet with a reputable bookmaker and to do your research before placing a bet.
Wrapping Up
Line betting can be an exciting and potentially profitable way to engage with sports. However, it requires a thorough understanding of how it works, a disciplined approach to bankroll management, and an analytical approach to analysing team performance and external factors.
Now that you’re up to date with line betting, check out other AFL betting options or head back to the homepage to view our recommendations for the best betting sites in Australia, best betting apps, and new betting sites!
